The Political Climate on Capitol Hill: A Return to Partisanship in an Election Year?
Charlie Cook, Editor and Publisher, The Cook Political Report

The opportunity for more changes in the congressional leadership exists in this fall’s elections, according to Charlie Cook, recognized as the best political handicapper in the nation. Not since 1954 has Congress been so evenly divided, he said.

Cook noted that history suggests the opportunity for Democratic gains in November. That’s because 32 out of 34 times the party in power in the White House has lost seats in the mid-term elections.

Before September 11, according to Cook, a slim majority of Americans were leaning toward the Democratic Party. Recent surveys, however, show that today more people, if asked what party they identify with, would say the Republican Party.

In the weeks immediately following last September’s terrorist acts, according to Cook, the nation’s focus has moved from concerns about national security to concerns about jobs and the nation’s economy. Should the economy rebound in the next few months, however, issues such as Social Security reform, prescription drug benefits for senior citizens and the environment will become more important. That shift would help Democrats, Cook said.

Unlike previous years, when typically there were as many as 150 competitive races in the House of Representatives, Cook’s early polling suggests that there were will be far fewer this year. Cook predicts that incumbents will retain their seats in most races, making it likely that Republicans will retain their majority status in the House.

In the Senate, Cook gives the Democrats a slight advantage following the mid-term elections. He noted that there are 20 Republicans and 14 Democrats up for reelection. Cook believes there will be three toss-up Senate races involving incumbent Republicans: Bob Smith (NH), Tim Hutchinson (AR) and Wayne Allard (CO). The Democrats also have three incumbents facing difficult reelection races: Paul Wellstone (MN), Tim Johnson (SD) and Jean Carnahan (MO).

Charlie Cook is seen regularly on CNN, frequently appears on network news programs and writes weekly for the National Journal magazine. He is editor and publisher of The Cook Report, the nation’s most respected newsletter on political campaigns.