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Kerry vs. Bush: Off to the Races
Charlie Cook
 Political analyst Charlie Cook, speaking at the opening session of the 2004 Annual Conference, said that the war in Iraq and the economy will be the two deciding factors in a presidential election that will likely end in “a photo finish.”
Delivering an overview of politics in America and the upcoming presidential election, Cook noted first how evenly divided the electorate is between Republicans and Democrats. He also noted that voters who identify themselves with one party or another are remarkably polarized, a situation that will influence turnout for the upcoming presidential election.
“I never thought I’d see another time when one party was so disapproving of an incumbent president, as Republicans were during Bill Clinton’s presidency,” Cook said. “Yet today 91% of all Republicans approve of the job President Bush is doing, while only 17% of Democrats approve of the job he is doing.”
Cook said that the war in Iraq will be of particular importance for voters who are undecided on the race. He noted that approval ratings for President Bush’s handling of Iraq have dropped noticeably in recent weeks.
The other critical issue will be the economy, Cook predicted, which will encompass a discussion about the creation of new jobs and affordable health care insurance. Cook said his research shows that the primary obstacle to new job creation for many organizations is the cost of employee benefits, principally health care. “I’ve spoken with numerous company owners who say they will pay any level of overtime to avoid hiring a new employee and the health care costs that it would create,” Cook said.
Although President Bush will have problems defending his actions in Iraq and his response to the ailing economy, Cook noted that Sen. Kerry, the presumptive Democrat nominee, has his own problems. The biggest, Cook said, includes difficulty connecting with voters and a voting record that many Americans may decide is too liberal. “The last three Democratic presidents were southerners, and the incumbent Republican is also a Southerner,” Cook observed. “That’s equated in the minds of most voters as a centrist,” he suggested, and “Republicans will spend millions of dollars telling voters Kerry is not a centrist.”
A small number of states may hold the key to the election—“swing voters in swing states,” Cook said. No state will be more important than Ohio, which has lost more than 200,000 jobs in recent years. Cook noted that no Republican in recent memory has been elected without winning Ohio.
Independent candidate Ralph Nader will be less influential in this race than he was in the 2000 election, Cook said, but in a close race “the loss of even one percent of the vote could be the difference between winning and losing.”
Only three dozen House races will be competitive, Cook said, perhaps the smallest number in American history. Because those election winners will likely be evenly divided between Democrat and Republican candidates, the House likely will remain under Republican control. Cook suggested Republicans are likely to increase their current 22-seat advantage.
In the Senate, where Republicans have only a two-seat majority, Cook said control of that chamber is up for grabs. More than six Senate races are very closely contested and impossible at this time to predict, Cook said.
Cook is the editor and publisher of The Cook Political Report and a columnist for the National Journal. He has served as a political analyst and election night commentator for NBC, CBS, ABC, CNN and PBS. He is widely regarded as one of the most accurate political analysts of the Washington political scene.
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