|
Red States vs. Blue States: Is There Another Color?
 One of Washington's leading political reporters, Peter Beinart, offered his predictions for the 109th Congress during the first keynote address of the 2005 Annual Conference.
Despite controlling the White House, House of Representatives and Senate, Republicans in Washington have found it difficult to establish and gain approval of their legislative agenda. Their difficulty, he suggested, is because of three signs of a forthcoming "political earthquake."
As one sign of trouble, Beinart noted that President Bush has spent most of his political capital in a largely unsuccessful fight to reform Social Security. Beinart said, "The more he has talked about it, however, the less popular the idea has become."
The second sign is Congress' intervention into the case of Terry Schiavo, the terminally ill woman in Florida, who was at the center of a court case to determine if she should be taken off life support medical equipment. Beinart noted that polling showed the overwhelming majority of Americans disapproved of Congress' intervention in the case.
The third sign of trouble for Republicans is the ongoing ethics controversy surrounding House of Representatives Majority Leader Tom DeLay (R-TX). DeLay has been accused of violating House ethics rules regarding trips paid by lobbyists. Beinart predicted that eventually DeLay will be forced from office. "He will go down sooner or later, Beinart said. "The question is who, if anyone, he will take with him" because other members, including some Democrats, have accepted the same favors from lobbyists.
Some of these problems, Beinart believes, can be traced to a misreading of the 2004 election results. Although many people believe the election results were a vote on values, he believes the Republicans' success was due to its position on national security and to President Bush's personal style of leadership "that resonates with most Americans." He did not, however, "have any mandate at all to revise Social Security."
Beinart believes there are striking similarities between the current situation and those that occurred in 1994 prior to the Republican Revolution. "The same problems existed," he noted, "with a battle over values with President Clinton's position on gays in the military and a political scandal involving then House Speaker Jim Wright (D-TX)."
Looking forward to the election in 2008, Beinart believes the two front runners are Senator John McCain (R-AZ) and Senator Hillary Clinton (D-NY). Both, however, have fundamental problems they must overcome.
McCain, like another often-mentioned possible candidate, former New York City mayor Rudy Giuliani, has almost no connection with the conservatives who are the Republican Party's base. For Clinton, the problems include the question of whether Americans are ready to vote for a woman as president. As significant, her opponents will say, "You're really electing Bill Clinton-again."
If McCain is nominated, Beinart believes "you will almost certainly see a third party candidate who will appeal to the conservative wing of the Republican party." Such a candidate would focus on government corruption, the growing budget deficit and a growing trade deficit. Both parties support free trade, which is increasingly unpopular with most Americans, especially as more white-collar jobs are sent overseas.
Another issue a third party candidate would focus on is immigration. "There is growing hostility in the U.S.," Beinart noted, "more so in the border states, but not limited to them. The perception is that illegal workers are keeping wages down. And the worse the economy is, the better the chances for a third party candidate."
Peter Beinart has been editor of The New Republic since November 1999. He has also written for The New York Times, The Wall Street Journal, The Financial Times, The Boston Globe, The Atlantic Monthly, Newsweek, and Time, where he is a contributor. He is a regular guest on CNN, and has appeared on ABC's "This Week with George Stephanopoulos," "Charlie Rose," "The McLaughlin Group," MTV, and many other television programs.
To view a portion of this presentation click here.
|
