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View into the Crystal Ball: Forecasting Health Care 2020 in the United States
Our current health problems will continue for several years, according to health care forecaster Jeff Bauer, but there are reasons for optimism about the chances of reducing costs and improving the effectiveness of health care.
 Bauer noted that potential progress toward a fair and rational health care delivery system will be hindered in the short term for several reasons. They include dysfunctional reimbursement policies, political gridlock over health care reform legislation and government deficits. "Chaos and crisis will prevail for several years to come, Bauer said, "but be prepared for some surprises."
Among the most significant areas of change in health care, Bauer noted the following:
- Medical science will experience many new discoveries, with an accelerating pace of productive research. Personalized medicine research is encouraging a change in the physician's approach from "find and fix" to "predict and prevent." Genetic research, for example, is making it much easier to predict those patients who are more likely to have heart problems.
- Expect significant growth in the use of drugs, a trend that will be accompanied by a decline in surgeries.
- Look for an increase in the use of non-physician practitioners with advanced practice skills.
Bauer also discussed in detail how technology is changing medicine. Some technology advances have added to health care costs, but Bauer believes that by 2020 technology will help cut costs. For example, information will be more accessible and easier to share, which could lead to better and faster coordination of coverage and treatment.
Technology will also help with an upcoming national labor shortage that will be particularly acute in health care. As one example, Bauer predicted that by 2020 the U.S. could have a 30% shortage of pharmacists. Virtual treatment by health care providers, made possible by technological advances, is just one way health care providers will address this labor shortage.
Although optimistic about the long-term potential for improvements in health care, in the short term Bauer said more Americans will be without insurance unless the political gridlock on health care ends. He expressed concern that in Washington there is more debate about the future of Social Security than Medicare's severe funding problems. Left unaddressed, he said, such issues ensure that consumers will pay a greater amount of the cost of health care.
Bauer encouraged NCPERS' members to talk to the nation's political leaders and encourage them to address this issue. "We are on the verge of doing some wonderful things," Bauer noted, "if we can find a way to work together."
Dr. Jeff Bauer is a nationally recognized health futurists and medical economist. Bauer is Senior Vice President of Superior Consultant Company, a leading provider of outsourcing, information technology, and management consulting services to the healthcare industry. In many published articles he has forecast the future of health care and described practical, creative approaches to improving the health care delivery system. He works with hospitals and other providers to develop strategic plans and technology assessments.
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