Navigating the Evolving Landscape of Public Pensions: Insights from BlackRock’s Latest Peer Study
Date postedNovember 13, 2025
By: Jonathan Cogan and Sarah Siwinski, BlackRock
BlackRock's Client Solutions Group analyzed data from over 145 U.S. public pension plans, uncovering key trends in funding, asset allocation and risk, which offers a forward-looking perspective for plan sponsors.
This is an excerpt from NCPERS Fall 2025 issue of PERSist.
In an era of heightened scrutiny and evolving market dynamics, public pension plans face increasing pressure to meet long-term obligations while navigating complex investment environments. To support plan sponsors in this mission, BlackRock's Client Solutions Group (CSG) conducted a comprehensive peer study analyzing annual report data from more than 145 U.S. public pension plans, representing over $5.4 trillion in assets under management. The peer study spans a wide range of plan sizes ($458 million to $539 billion) and offers a robust view into how public pensions are allocating assets, managing risk, and benchmarking performance. Below, we highlight four key themes that emerged from the analysis.
1. Funded ratios: A modest climb
In fiscal year 2024, the average funded ratio across the public pension universe rose to 78%, up slightly from 77% in FY2023.
2. Portfolio allocations: A tilt toward growth
The study found that, on average, public plans allocated 78% of their portfolios to growth assets. This includes 44% in public equities and 34% in alternatives such as private equity, real estate, and infrastructure.
3. Risk exposures: Concentration in economic growth
One of the most striking findings was the concentration of portfolio risk in the economic growth factor. Over 80% of the average portfolio's total risk, which is measured at 13.4%, was attributed to this single factor.
4. Historical and expected returns: A turning point
Over the past decade, only 51% of plans in the study achieved or exceeded their assumed return targets. However, based on BlackRock's capital market assumptions, the outlook is more optimistic: over 80% of plans are expected to exceed their assumed return going forward, with an average margin of 92 basis points1.
Conclusion: Benchmarking for better outcomes
This peer study offers a valuable lens through which public pension stakeholders can evaluate their own positioning relative to peers. By understanding how others are allocating assets, managing risk, and setting expectations, plan sponsors can make more informed decisions that align with their unique objectives and constraints.
As the public pension landscape continues to evolve, data-driven insights like these will be essential for navigating uncertainty and delivering on long-term promises to beneficiaries.
Watch for a deeper look into these findings in the upcoming Winter edition of PERSist.
Disclosures: BlackRock. The views expressed are as of Fiscal Year 2024 / December 2024 and subject to change with market conditions. All public pension data throughout this presentation is sourced from Pensions and Investments, public annual reporting and BlackRock as of December 2024 & Fiscal Year 2024.
Capital at risk. The value of investments and the income from them can fall as well as rise and are not guaranteed. Investors may not get back the amount originally invested.
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of current or future results and should not be the sole factor of consideration when selecting a product or strategy.
In the U.S., this material is for Institutional use only – not for public distribution.
FOR INSTITUTIONAL, FINANCIAL PROFESSIONAL, PROFESSIONAL INVESTORS, ACCREDITED INVESTORS, PERMITTED CLIENT, AND WHOLESALE INVESTOR USE ONLY. THIS MATERIAL IS NOT TO BE REPRODUCED OR DISTRIBUTED TO PERSONS OTHER THAN THE RECIPIENT.
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Endnotes:
1BlackRock's Long-Term Capital Market Assumption Disclosures: This information is not intended as a recommendation to invest in any particular asset class or strategy or product or as a promise of future performance. Note that these asset class assumptions are passive, and do not consider the impact of active management. Given the complex risk-reward trade-offs involved, we advise clients to rely on their own judgment as well as quantitative optimization approaches in setting strategic allocations to all the asset classes and strategies. References to future returns are not promises or even estimates of actual returns a client portfolio may achieve. Assumptions, opinions and estimates are provided for illustrative purposes only. They should not be relied upon as recommendations to buy or sell securities. Forecasts of financial market trends that are based on current market conditions constitute our judgment and are subject to change without notice. We believe the information provided here is reliable, but do not warrant its accuracy or completeness. The outputs of the assumptions are provided for illustration purposes only and are subject to significant limitations. “Expected” return estimates are subject to uncertainty and error. Expected returns for each asset class can be conditional on economic scenarios; in the event a particular scenario comes to pass, actual returns could be significantly higher or lower than forecasted. Because of the inherent limitations of all models, potential investors should not rely exclusively on the model when making an investment decision. The model cannot account for the impact that economic, market, and other factors may have on the implementation and ongoing management of an actual investment portfolio.
Bios: Jonathan Cogan, CFA, CAIA and Sarah Siwinski, CFA lead BlackRock's Client Solutions Group's public pension practice. They partner with plans to address their unique investment challenges through the creation of tailored investment solutions. Jonathan and Sarah also publish industry thought leadership, like the annual peer risk analysis - now in its seventh vintage. They engage with pension staff on investment strategy and help educate boards on industry trends and themes.